FIA Market Briefing

Thursday, October 1, 2026
● FIA RATE ENVIRONMENT: NEUTRALMixed signals — rates likely holding steady
Fed Watch
Fed Funds Rate Target
4.25% – 4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
Yield Curve & Rates
4.01%
2-Year Treasury
-0.02 this week
Normal
+128 bps
10Y minus 2Y
5.29%
10-Year Treasury
+0.18 this week

What this means for FIA rates: The 10-year Treasury rose +0.18% this week to 5.29%, widening insurer bond income — but rising volatility (VIX at 16.3) is driving up options costs, so the net effect on cap rates is mixed. The yield curve is normal (+128 bps), a healthy sign for insurer long-term portfolio returns.

Key FIA Rate Drivers
10-Year Treasury Yield↑0.18 this week
10-Year Treasury Yield
VIX (Volatility)↑7.64% this week
VIX (Volatility)
What This Means for FIA Cap Rates

The 10-year at 5.29% is helping carrier budgets, but VIX at 16.3 is driving option costs higher. The two forces are offsetting — caps may stay flat rather than improve until volatility settles.

FIA Rate Outlook

Mixed signals for FIA rates. Higher yields are a positive, but rising volatility is driving up options costs, which can offset the benefit. The 10-year moved from 5.11% to 5.29% over the week, and VIX went from 15.18 to 16.34. The yield curve is positive (128bps spread) — a healthy sign for insurer portfolio returns. Watch for rate updates from carriers — some may hold current rates while they wait for volatility to settle.

Client Talking Points Today
  • →Volatility is elevated — emphasize the downside protection and guaranteed floor that FIAs provide.
  • →With the S&P down 1.46% this week, this is a strong moment to highlight how FIAs protect against market losses while still offering upside participation.
  • →With the 10-year at 5.29%, fixed-rate alternatives look competitive. Be ready to explain how FIA participation in market upside differentiates them from straight fixed annuities.
FIA-Linked Index Performance
S&P 500↓1.46% this week
S&P 500
NASDAQ↓1.41% this week
NASDAQ
Russell 2000↓3.22% this week
Russell 2000
2-Year Treasury↓0.50% this week
2-Year Treasury

Today Financial Agency • Jed Monsen • 801.857.1069

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