FIA Market Briefing

Friday, May 15, 2026
FIA RATE ENVIRONMENT: NEUTRALMixed signals — rates likely holding steady
Fed Watch
Fed Funds Rate Target
4.25% – 4.50%
Next FOMC Meeting
May 6–7, 2026
Yield Curve & Rates
3.60%
2-Year Treasury
+0 this week
Normal
+95 bps
10Y minus 2Y
4.55%
10-Year Treasury
+0.16 this week

What this means for FIA rates: The 10-year Treasury rose +0.16% this week to 4.55%, widening insurer bond income — but rising volatility (VIX at 19.1) is driving up options costs, so the net effect on cap rates is mixed. The yield curve is normal (+95 bps), a healthy sign for insurer long-term portfolio returns.

Key FIA Rate Drivers
10-Year Treasury Yield0.16 this week
10-Year Treasury Yield
VIX (Volatility)11.94% this week
VIX (Volatility)
What This Means for FIA Cap Rates

The 10-year at 4.55% is helping carrier budgets, but VIX at 19.1 is driving option costs higher. The two forces are offsetting — caps may stay flat rather than improve until volatility settles.

FIA Rate Outlook

Mixed signals for FIA rates. Higher yields are a positive, but rising volatility is driving up options costs, which can offset the benefit. The 10-year moved from 4.39% to 4.55% over the week, and VIX went from 17.08 to 19.12. The yield curve is positive (95bps spread) — a healthy sign for insurer portfolio returns. Watch for rate updates from carriers — some may hold current rates while they wait for volatility to settle.

Client Talking Points Today
  • Volatility is elevated — emphasize the downside protection and guaranteed floor that FIAs provide.
  • Markets are up — the S&P gained 1.85% this week. Remind clients that FIAs let them participate in gains like these while protecting their principal from downturns.
  • Index performance is diverging (NASDAQ up 3.08%) — worth discussing which FIA index crediting strategy best fits each client's outlook.
  • With the 10-year at 4.55%, fixed-rate alternatives look competitive. Be ready to explain how FIA participation in market upside differentiates them from straight fixed annuities.
FIA-Linked Index Performance
S&P 5001.85% this week
S&P 500
NASDAQ3.08% this week
NASDAQ
Russell 20000.82% this week
Russell 2000
2-Year Treasury0.00% this week
2-Year Treasury

Today Financial Agency • Jed Monsen • 801.857.1069

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